3k fusings and no 6 link

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Phrazz a écrit :

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NoBillag a écrit :

I guess you two also know the Monty Hall Problem and the correct solution :)

Of course I do. "Always" change your mind.

:D
Who doesn't know the Monty Hall Problem. OK, in Germany it's better known as Ziegenproblem (Goat Problem), but that doesn't change a thing.

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Mikrotherion a écrit :

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Phrazz a écrit :

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NoBillag a écrit :

I guess you two also know the Monty Hall Problem and the correct solution :)

Of course I do. "Always" change your mind.

:D
Who doesn't know the Monty Hall Problem. OK, in Germany it's better known as Ziegenproblem (Goat Problem), but that doesn't change a thing.

you'd be surprised, lol

I wasted over 6k fusings once and didn't get a 6L.
I wasted 8 fusings once and got a 6L.

Thats is RNG.

I rather have 6l harder to get so I can make more currency when I sell all my linked stuff.

the average for a 28% item is somewhere around 900 fusings, so you shouldn't expect to get it in "a few hundred"

been awhile since ive seen one of these posts.

i've heard of people dropping 5k on the links...which is why the crafting recipe is in game. If i had the fusing id drop 100 on lucky rolls then buy the recipe which is what 1500 fusing and call it a day.

Interestingly enough with 1000 fusings - chance of success is 71.4%.
For 1 in 800 probability by each fusing (20% quality item)

In HC Betrayal 1000 fusings mean - around 540 chaos.

By doing 500 fusings and then recipe - 1500 fusings -> the worst case scenario (if you don't link in first 500 fusings) will const you 1080 chaos.

By trying first 1000 and then using recipe - it will cost you 1350 chaos.

So this is the amount of currency you should be willing to spend on such project!

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MrZaonish a écrit :

I rather have 6l harder to get so I can make more currency when I sell all my linked stuff.

What I'd love to see is additive links. Get a chance to get one more link.... then you could first go with 4L, when you need it go to 5L... and then you can keep using that orb and eventually it'll become a 6L but it won't reroll links randomly.

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NoBillag a écrit :

While we're at probabilites and statistics:

I've tossed a goin 9 times and it was always head.

What's the probability on my next toss that it will be tails?

Given no other information about the goin, I'd say 0%.

Just an FYI, the chance of not getting a 6L after 3000 fuses is around 5%. Not exactly astronomically low.