3k fusings and no 6 link

While we're at probabilites and statistics:

I've tossed a goin 9 times and it was always head.

What's the probability on my next toss that it will be tails?

I think good idea is to have a rule - e.g.: if I don't 6L the item in 500 fusings, I'll use 6L recipe then.
I think any value between 500 to 1500 fusings is good one for the rule.

This kinda limits your pain although it may mean that overall average over many items 6Led is somewhat higher. Shagsbeard may elaborate whether this is true or not and what is optimal value for this rule.

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NoBillag a écrit :

While we're at probabilites and statistics:

I've tossed a goin 9 times and it was always head.

What's the probability on my next toss that it will be tails?

50%

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Mikrotherion a écrit :

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NoBillag a écrit :

While we're at probabilites and statistics:

I've tossed a goin 9 times and it was always head.

What's the probability on my next toss that it will be tails?

50%

People creating threads like this apparently don't know this. It's kind of embarrassing, really.

There's nothing wrong with bad RNG. It's the nature of "random". If random wasn't random, it wouldn't be random.

Are people complaining about "broken RNG" if they sixlink items in 2 fusings too?

less than 500 and I don't even need it
the item that I actually needed at the start of the league took almost 900 jewellers to 6 socket and refused to 5-link, I just gave up

this RNG can be brutal, but it's so satisfying when you finally land 6-link

I either buy the gear with the links I want, or use the crafting station. I gave up a long time ago taking the risk to do it cheaper, it's never worked out for any item I desired and it never will.

One time I just wanted a 6s5l vis mortis. To buy it was about 50c, and it ended up costing me like 120c to try it on my own. Took like 600+jews, and 280+ fusings... for a 5l.

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Phrazz a écrit :

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Mikrotherion a écrit :

50%

People creating threads like this apparently don't know this. It's kind of embarrassing, really.

There's nothing wrong with bad RNG. It's the nature of "random". If random wasn't random, it wouldn't be random.

Are people complaining about "broken RNG" if they sixlink items in 2 fusings too?

I guess you two also know the Monty Hall Problem and the correct solution :)

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NoBillag a écrit :

I guess you two also know the Monty Hall Problem and the correct solution :)

Of course I do. "Always" change your mind.

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Phrazz a écrit :

Of course I do. "Always" change your mind.

A lot of people don't understand it :)

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NoBillag a écrit :

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Phrazz a écrit :

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Mikrotherion a écrit :

50%

People creating threads like this apparently don't know this. It's kind of embarrassing, really.

There's nothing wrong with bad RNG. It's the nature of "random". If random wasn't random, it wouldn't be random.

Are people complaining about "broken RNG" if they sixlink items in 2 fusings too?

I guess you two also know the Monty Hall Problem and the correct solution :)

oh my god you could get this forum to melt down so badly with a monty hall thread i love it