General Discussion - Socket Chances Revealed! - Forum

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symban a écrit :

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Malone a écrit :

it means 300 jewellers in average to get 6S ? weird, I think it was easier than that...

Nope probability calculation does not work that way. Your chances of getting it is still 0.033% after failing 299 times.

You should calculate like this:
Your chance getting it with 2 try is:
1-(0.9967 * 0.9967)
your chances of getting it with 300 jewelers is
1-(0.9967 * ....(insert 298 times same thing here).... * 0.9967)

I always did 1-ChanceToFail^HowManyAttempts

So to 6S an item with 300 jeweler's orbs, it would be 1-0.9967^300 = ~62.54% to be successful. Which does the exact same thing as you did, just takes up less space. :p

How Fusings Work: http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/38585/page/3#p1451934

IGN: TheHammer

Posté par
TehHammer#0539
le 24 mai 2014 à 08:56:59

Banni(e)

Citer ce post

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TehHammer a écrit :

I think you've got it backwards, my table accounts for not rerolling the same sockets, which is why the cell at column "1" and row "to 1 socket" is 0. What it fails at is calculating from an item that isn't 6 socket to start with, as it's just a simple probability table.

Also, the calculated amount in that spreadsheet is 0.4491569...%, not 0.4529%, not that it matters much.

Yeah, numbers in that spreadsheet are correct.
I don't understand why, but they are :)
I got exactly the same result using my beloved equations :)

I thought your spreadsheet uses formula (100/305)(1/206)+(90/305)(1/216)+(80/305)(1/226)+(30/305)(1/276)+(5/305)(1/301)=0.4529% from the old thread you linked, this is why I "got it backwards" :)