Socket Chances Revealed!

Please people, stop assuming 1 in 306 is the probability of a jeweler's turning an item 6L. It's not. You're not accounting for the fact that a jeweler's can't reroll the same socket count. Average is 1 in ~223.

"

TehHammer a écrit :

Please people, stop assuming 1 in 306 is the probability of a jeweler's turning an item 6L. It's not. You're not accounting for the fact that a jeweler's can't reroll the same socket count. Average is 1 in ~223.

That jeweller's constraint is very useful, then. I assume you mean expectation is 223? (Equivalently, odds of 6S after spending one jeweller orb = 1/223?)

("Average" is imprecise.)

Median would still be about 2/3 (closer still: 1-1/e) of that, then -- or 141.

lol @ this thread and peeps arguing math.



200>300 is reasonable if it were a GUARANTEE to 6S an item. Too bad it isn't.

"

Isbox1 a écrit :

lol @ this thread and peeps arguing math.

Knowing the chances lets you manage your risk properly. I'll usually accept a 99% chance as close enough to a guarantee.

(And, yes, the result is that 6S is *far* too expensive to attempt unless you've got a stack of a couple thousand jewellers at hand.)

0.33% is just 0.33% every time you dump a jew on an item.Trying to find an averange number is totally naive.Take a deck of cards that has 300+ cards and only one ace of spades.Pick a card,then suffle and do it again....

"

astraph a écrit :

0.33% is just 0.33% every time you dump a jew on an item.Trying to find an averange number is totally naive.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expected_value

That only tells part of the story, but it's something that can be computed and used. You can get a good idea of how many you're likely to have to spend before you go ahead and do it. You can use that number to determine if you're better off rolling sockets on your own or buying a pre-rolled piece. (Often, it's the latter, but it's good to be able to check for yourself.)

Keep in mind, Chris says this is the chance for socketing weapons. For my own experience, I find far more high socket/link weapons than armor.

"

astraph a écrit :

0.33% is just 0.33% every time you dump a jew on an item.Trying to find an averange number is totally naive.Take a deck of cards that has 300+ cards and only one ace of spades.Pick a card,then suffle and do it again....

Yes it's true each event is independent but to disregard looking the average number is pretty much disregarding all of statistics.

It's like flipping a coin. Yes each flip is 50/50

but if I said "Are you going to a get a heads in the next 10 flips?" you can be pretty confident you will.

Likewise if I gave you 500 jewelers and said "get 6 sockets" you know there's a much better chance you have a 6 socket than you don't by the end.

"

syrioforel a écrit :

(Equivalently, odds of 6S after spending one jeweller orb = 1/223?)

It completely depends on the amount of sockets that are on the item in the first place. If the item has 5 sockets, it's only a 1:301 chance it will hit 6 sockets in one jeweler's orb. If it has 1 socket, it's a 1:206 chance. Given the probability of each socket count falling on the item BEFORE you place a jeweler's orb on it, the overall, average odds of 6S after spending one jeweler's orb would be 1:223.

"

("Average" is imprecise.)

Median would still be about 2/3 (closer still: 1-1/e) of that, then -- or 141.

"Average" is imprecise, sure, but median isn't going to be close to 141. I'll throw it in a simulation just for kicks...

"

Malone a écrit :

it means 300 jewellers in average to get 6S ? weird, I think it was easier than that...

Nope probability calculation does not work that way. Your chances of getting it is still 0.033% after failing 299 times.

You should calculate like this:
Your chance getting it with 2 try is:
1-(0.9967 * 0.9967)
your chances of getting it with 300 jewelers is
1-(0.9967 * ....(insert 298 times same thing here).... * 0.9967)