Socket Chances Revealed!

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aldorus a écrit :

Just to raise general math awareness, it is not entirely true that 300 jewelers ~ I get 6S.

Basically, you have (1 - 0.0033) = 0.9967 ~ 99.67% chance NOT to get 6S on every jeweler.

Now, if you invest 300 jewelers, you have exactly

0.9967 ^ 300 chance to NOT get 6S.

0.9967 ^ 300 = 0.371 ~ 37%.

So, by investing 300 jewelers you have 37% chance to NOT get any 6S

Expected value is 300, though. (High variance rolls suck)

EDIT: Fun fact: generally, with the odds this low, you have approximately a 1/e ~ 37% chance of spending more than the expected value of orbs.

I've 6S with one jew and not 6S with >400 jew.

I despise socketing and linking. This absolute RNG high variance is retarded. Only gambling addicts find this fun.

I've never felt happiness of achievement when I got a 6S or 5L. Just relief it's finally fucking over...

Recently I discovered the true face of RNG while I was throwing 600 jewl's on a chest and still waiting for 6 sockets on it. Before it took me maybe 60-80 to get a 6 socket all the time i tried. I hardly believed you could have so many bad luck....but you can...you will.

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OleOlof a écrit :

Recently I discovered the true face of RNG while I was throwing 600 jewl's on a chest and still waiting for 6 sockets on it. Before it took me maybe 60-80 to get a 6 socket all the time i tried. I hardly believed you could have so many bad luck....but you can...you will.

If the expectation is 300 jewellers, the chance of needing 600 is over 1/8 (!)

That's not even super unlucky.

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syrioforel a écrit :

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OleOlof a écrit :

Recently I discovered the true face of RNG while I was throwing 600 jewl's on a chest and still waiting for 6 sockets on it. Before it took me maybe 60-80 to get a 6 socket all the time i tried. I hardly believed you could have so many bad luck....but you can...you will.

If the expectation is 300 jewellers, the chance of needing 600 is over 1/8 (!)

That's not even super unlucky.

Did I mentioned its not 6 socket yet? Maybe I am still able to get yr "super unlucky" approval.

I tried 6s a quill rain (yes it was ilvl 50+) and I gave up after 400, still seems not much over the expected amount. Yet you see so many 6s uniques traded everywhere makes me think my RNG was bad !

I also remember ColbyCheeze who needed 1010 jeweller's to 6s his Lightning coil back in a one week race. 5linked it after 5 fusings though, balancing RNG? :p

fun fact:

statistically 10% of the entire PoE playerbase has to spend 700 jeweller's or more to get a 6S item, if everybody tried to 6S an item once.

The funny thing about this is, there's absolutely no reason why the 10% get shafted like this.

I had given up after 500 Jeweler's Orbs in Domination, and now in Ambush it took me around 600 to six-socket a chest. Been trying to link it since. For me, the socketing/linking probabilities (and the involved uncertainty) are the single most frustrating aspect of the game. The "What am I actually doing here? This has nothing to do with playing a game." kind of frustration.

But there was mention of this being addressed for the new leagues, so I'm waiting and seeing. It's a good sign that we are given more numbers, too.

I always heard rumors that higher the ilevel = higher chance of 6s. That is just rumors, then?

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syrioforel a écrit :

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Malone a écrit :

it means 300 jewellers in average to get 6S ? weird, I think it was easier than that...

300 on average means most people get it in roughly <= 200.

I don't even know how to respond to this.