Expectations of mirror/portal gem

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AintCare a écrit :

you dpn't need sampling... what are you in bio?!

what you need:

calculator
probability of the drop (a)
kill speed or avr kill count per minute (b)
avrg drops per mob (c)

game time necessary to get the drop= 1/(a*b*c)

edit: syntax error

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iHaku a écrit :

i call bullshit.

let me fix this for you
since yo have a "probability" you can never ever have a "game time necessary to get the drop"
its rng.
you can play a million hours and not even find a single orb (theoreticaly)
the chance is just very small.

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b15h09 a écrit :

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majesw a écrit :

I don't need to play 100,000 hours. I just need 100,000 people to play an hour. GGG already has the data. I hope they have their drop rates so that people can expect drops of these items within 1000-2000 hours of game-play. I know games like this have to have super rare items, but currency or crafting items should have some sort of expected drop rate.

Most people don't find exalteds within 1000 hours, let alone mirrors. GGG has made clear that they won't be releasing that type of data.

If you're wanting some data, in my 1000 or so hours, I've found:

0 Mirrors
0 Portal Gems
0 Exalted Orbs
1 Divine Orb
3 Gemcutter's Prisms

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majesw a écrit :

I don't believe that you have played 1000 hours...
I have horrible luck compared to some people and between 500 and 1000 hours played.
I've found 2 exalts, 4 divines, and around 10 GCPs.

In a thousand hours of play I should expect to at least have a 50% chance of dropping all currencies I would think. That's just my opinion though!

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majesw a écrit :

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iHaku a écrit :

i call bullshit.

let me fix this for you
since yo have a "probability" you can never ever have a "game time necessary to get the drop"
its rng.
you can play a million hours and not even find a single orb (theoreticaly)
the chance is just very small.

You need to take a course in statistics then. You can estimate expected time for an event to happen. You are speaking of outliers when you give the example of never finding an orb in a million hours. And that's not even an outlier in this case. It's just not really possible.

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iHaku a écrit :

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majesw a écrit :

"

iHaku a écrit :

i call bullshit.

let me fix this for you
since yo have a "probability" you can never ever have a "game time necessary to get the drop"
its rng.
you can play a million hours and not even find a single orb (theoreticaly)
the chance is just very small.

You need to take a course in statistics then. You can estimate expected time for an event to happen. You are speaking of outliers when you give the example of never finding an orb in a million hours. And that's not even an outlier in this case. It's just not really possible.

and you need to get ingame and look it up on your own.

or you tell me how long you have to play go get a 100% chance of a mirror =)

i'll tell you. forever
you can never have 100%

and even if you reach 99% in 1000 hours. just take 100 people and one of them might not find his mirror/portalgem in this time.

theory is one thing....