3k fusings and no 6 link

Item has maxed quality, and I spend over 3k fusings = havent got a six link.
What is wrong with this game RNG?

RNG is RNG, dude. I'm 6000 fusings in on a 28q soul mantle this league (I already bought another 6L one with the currency I acquired elsewhere in the game, but at this point 6Ling it before I quit the league is a matter of principle), you don't see me making topics just to complain about it.

At 20q, around 1000 fusings is average. Which means you have about a 1/1000 chance on each fusing to get it.

To fail after 3000 fusings is a (999/1000)^3000 chance, which is 5%. So you're unlucky but not super insanely unlucky.

Meanwhile, I'm at (999/1000)^6000 which is 0.25% (actually even worse since mine is 28% rather than 20%). Way worse off than you :P But there have still been even unluckier people!

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lolosss a écrit :

What is wrong with this game RNG?

Absolutely NOTHING. Random doesnt mean 'average' or 'evenly distributed'. It doesnt have a pattern. You cannot control it. In Beastiary i linked an item in 3 fuses. For every case of mine, there WILL be someone like you. If you dont want to risk it, use the bench (if you dont have the recipe, look for a service).

RNG is RNG. You could theoretically spend 1 million fusings without getting a 6 link. If you dont like the RNG aspect of fusing, you could buy the item already 6 linked, buy fatal connections prophecy or link with bench. Selling the fusings would give you a lot of the currency needed.

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CrazylikE a écrit :

RNG is RNG. You could theoretically spend 1 million fusings without getting a 6 link.

To be fair, that'll almost certainly never happen. A million fusings failing in a row would be a 3e-435 probability. To understand how incomprehensibly small that is, the expression "That'll only happen to one atom among all of the atoms in the known universe" would refer to around a 1e-82 probability.

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codetaku a écrit :

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CrazylikE a écrit :

RNG is RNG. You could theoretically spend 1 million fusings without getting a 6 link.

To be fair, that'll almost certainly never happen. A million fusings failing in a row would be a 3e-435 probability. To understand how incomprehensibly small that is, the expression "That'll only happen to one atom among all of the atoms in the known universe" would refer to around a 1e-82 probability.

what are you going on about...

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codetaku a écrit :

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CrazylikE a écrit :

RNG is RNG. You could theoretically spend 1 million fusings without getting a 6 link.

To be fair, that'll almost certainly never happen. A million fusings failing in a row would be a 3e-435 probability. To understand how incomprehensibly small that is, the expression "That'll only happen to one atom among all of the atoms in the known universe" would refer to around a 1e-82 probability.

And it is still possible because there is nothing to prevent this. You can just search for 333 players which has used 3000 fusings without 6L an item and sum them up. Tada, 1M Fusings spend without 6L.

In other hand, there are 600 other players which has 6L in their first atemp.

i spent 1935 fusings last night linking a bow with 45% quality. i thought that was pretty high.

i had 12X fusings left and if it didn't link by the time they were done, i was going to buy one linked.

you really need to calculate what kind of gamble you can afford. if you go all in on a gamble and lose, it feels bad and i can understand wanting to make a thread in frustration about it

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Fumina a écrit :

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codetaku a écrit :

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CrazylikE a écrit :

RNG is RNG. You could theoretically spend 1 million fusings without getting a 6 link.

To be fair, that'll almost certainly never happen. A million fusings failing in a row would be a 3e-435 probability. To understand how incomprehensibly small that is, the expression "That'll only happen to one atom among all of the atoms in the known universe" would refer to around a 1e-82 probability.

And it is still possible because there is nothing to prevent this. You can just search for 333 players which has used 3000 fusings without 6L an item and sum them up. Tada, 1M Fusings spend without 6L.

In other hand, there are 600 other players which has 6L in their first atemp.

That's not even remotely comparable. 1000000 fusings on a single item isn't even remotely comparable to "1000000 fusings used in history on any number of items".

Probability isn't that hard, people.

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saltyvu a écrit :

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codetaku a écrit :

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CrazylikE a écrit :

RNG is RNG. You could theoretically spend 1 million fusings without getting a 6 link.

To be fair, that'll almost certainly never happen. A million fusings failing in a row would be a 3e-435 probability. To understand how incomprehensibly small that is, the expression "That'll only happen to one atom among all of the atoms in the known universe" would refer to around a 1e-82 probability.

what are you going on about...

I'm going on about math. The chance of a million fusings in a row failing to deliver a 6L is approximately (999/1000)^1000000, which is 3 * 10^(-435), ie, an event that will statistically almost certainly never happen. To spell it out for you, the chance of this happening is

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