Does fusing orbs have been nerfed?

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herflik a écrit :

The low chance to fuse something to 6L isnt a problem.

The design problem is in loosing 5L when trying to upgrade it.
Taking into account chance for 6L, the system shouldn't downgrade your links when you attempt to 6L. Otherwise it penalize you two times, or require you to have two same items. One for linking other for grinding.

The other solution is to remove the crafts (1500 fusings) with they already restriced to appear only in high depth delve (with require you to have 6L before hand anyway - logic design) and then just increase success chance the more fusings you put into the item.

In example 1st fusing = 0,01%, 10th fusing 0,1% chance, 100th fusing 0,5% chance and so on (numbers are just examples). Giving some safety to bad luck streaks of some people.

A+ post, and the bolded suggestion is something I support whenever I see it pop up.

Such a basic 'early endgame' goal (having a 6-linked item) should not require trading, nor should it be gated behind random mechanics with such ridiculous odds.

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Llama8 a écrit :

If you do "know maths", would you mind calculating for me the probability of 6l an item in 3 attempts if the average is 1,500 (and I assume that by that they mean that you've got a 50% chance with 1,500 attempts)? Then do the same for 2,500 attempts.

Can I take you up on that offer? Actually, I already have so I'm just asking out of courtesy at this point. :)

First things first: When people say "1500 average" or something similar, they mean that every fuse used on a 6-socket 0% quality item has a 1 in 1500 chance of 6-linking it. Keep in mind that this is mostly based on community testing, and even then, it's old info. We simply don't have access to the actual value.

Assuming 20% quality multiplies your chances by 1.2, it should net us with a 1/1250 chance to 6-link, so I'll use that value. Welcome to PoE where we base our calculations on speculations.


The probability of 6-linking a 6-socket 20% quality item in at most N attempts (fuses) should be:

1 - ( ( 1249 / 1250 ) ^ N )


So, to answer your question (finally):

3 attempts:
0.002398

2500 attempts:
0.864773


But why stop there?

5000 attempts:
0.981714

10000 attempts:
0.999666


More fun:

Chance to NOT link in 10000 attempts:
0.000334 = 1/2994

It means that, on average, for every ~3000 players who persistently try to 6-link their items no matter the cost (sunk cost fallacy and all that) there is 1 poor bastard who still doesn't have a 6-link after 10k fuses spent.

It's all fun and games until you're that poor bastard. Which is exactly why you shouldn't let RNG run wild without fail-safes.


All this is assuming the starting value is correct, the math is correct, and the 'poor bastard' didn't get RSI before reaching this point. :)

Once again, welcome to PoE where we do math for fun. At least I do. :)


Thanks to anyone who read all of this. You're crazy. I like you.




Disclaimer: If anything I mentioned here is incorrect (including but not limited to the math), feel free to correct me.

I don't think people are being negative, people are just stating facts. It's RNG, plain and simple.

I have already six linked 6 items under 1500 fusings this league. I haven't been this lucky in past leagues so did the fusing rates change this league?

No.

Just RNG.

We just have to deal with that treacherous beast every league. Sometimes RNG wants to be your friend, sometimes it is your worst enemy.

Path of Exile: Betrayal, eh?

Haha, good luck.

well tbh i usually 6link around 30-40 items every season.
In betrayal i'm having the worst 6 linking experience i've ever had.
And im starting to think that with the introduction of 30% quality etc, they rebalanced the 6linking chance.
Of course it could be just RNG, but it still feels pretty strange.

Its got nerfed pretty sure coz of these 20+ qualities options in all leagues i got 20x6l etc now i used 5k on 2 items.. it cant be real trust me and i never cry now im see its bugged something

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galuf a écrit :

Am I the only one having historic lows on 6L rates?

Yesterday I bought 800ish+ fuses and my chest is still not 6L. I spent between 2K and 2K5 fuses on it. It really hinders my progression in this league. I think that fusing orbs have seen rebalances regularily.

I got my first 6L in Torment or around torment. In perandus I 6Led 2 unique items with 4 jews and 3 fusings(a coil and a shav lol), and I got decent luck in breach(6Linking 2 now legacy vaal regalias and selling one chaos spamed for like 10ex profit) and abyss(on my 2nd perfect form after few 5ls but not that much fuses: like roughly 500 overall), while the 2 last leagues I failed at 6linking my stuffs and this one, despite having sold lots of items then bought ton of fuses, farmed a lot of 6S and stuffs I managed 0 6L against all odds.

Had a 5 link loreweave. Wanted a 6 link but didn't want to ruin my current setup.

Bought a 6L to use. Started to try to 6L the one I had been using. 3 fusings....fuck me. Gave it to my wife.

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galuf a écrit :

jeez so much negativity. My sample size is correlated with my game experience playing regularily since 3 years, so I'm pretty sure about how I feel about using fusings, thank you for explaining me that the feeling I have using a particular game mechanic is nonsensical.

Also I'm an engineer and I know maths, so for you guys telling me that I'm clueless about probability: yeah ty :).

My data is for maybe 15-20K fuses total I 6Led only 6 items in poe, and when I 6Led an item, I 6Led other items in the particular league I was in. :)

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rzuk892 a écrit :

In Delve I 6 linked like 5 items with ~1K fusings total.
Now I can't even manually 5 link anything, feels bad.

It should always happen at a point :). Keep your farm up!

You know maths, do you? Do you know variance? Your sample size is 6.

Bad data is worse than no data.

6links got nerfed 100% sure they not gonna tell you i never have thaet bad links in all leagues its all about 28% qualities etc,