is vorici 6L worth it?

Well, gambling is always risky. Sometime, you can get 6l using 1 fuse, and if you are unlucky enough, not getting it after 5000 fuses. My ssf char kinda got divine intervention and get my first 6l in 16 fuses.

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鬼殺し a écrit :

Absent trading, I don't think there's a clear answer because there will always be the lucky ones skewing an otherwise obvious statistic -- Chris has said outright the average number of fusing orbs required to 6l is higher than 1500.

But if we weren't gamblers at heart we wouldn't be playing this ridiculously RNG-ruled game...so even though we know Vorici 6l is the better path, 1499 fusing orbs is a heck of a lot of rolls for what seems like a very possible outcome when you switch the knowledge brain parts off.

Which we all do at some point, because the moment you start thinking about PoE's probabilities for success and the amount of time required to achieve it, the futility can be very depressing.

this makes me lol hahaha.

but yea seems like it. guess if i like gambling and got the currency--go for it. if not, then don't. that seems to sum up the advice here. i can't afford to gamble. i ain't rich like the pros, so prob i'm just gonna stick with buying 6L's off of poetrade.

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iMbaQ a écrit :

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_Tiem a écrit :

Anything that bypasses RNG is ALWAYS better. Everything on Vorici is always better. Links, sockets, whatever. The only reason to try your luck is stupidity or not having the currency for the table and being too myopic to save up. Yup, you can 6L off one fuse. You could get 6Ls back to back with a few hundred. Then you're going to hit a dry spell and spend 6k with nothing to show for it.

A streamer spent 3.6k and got nothing. He could have 6L 3 items and still had fuses to spare. Plus GGG always manipulates the RNG behind it, like they do with currency and just about anything. Some leagues it's easier, some harder.

Use the table. Don't be a shnook.

That's all well and good, but I've probably had above average 6L's and never used Vorici, and never ever had to use more than 500 on a single item (maybe GGG can verify this in this thread if data is available).

Yes I could have needed 10,000, but sometimes taking the risk is worth it - besides if you aren't willing to take risks in a game, what is the point. Just the thought of trading up for 1500 fusings makes me cringe, I'd rather blow my stash.

That cannot be, statistically you are bound to the same RNG we are bound to (unless GGG manipulates individual accounts). You just THINK you have better luck. If GGG posted data you would see that your luck is no better than anyone elses. Over time, if you gamble and spam fuses, you WILL run over the 1,500 mark. As someone above has said, Chris has already confirmed that statistically, over time, each 6L done manually runs higher than what Vorici charges.

The smart players buy their 6Ls. If it's a lucrative rare, then they use Vorici.

I too have 6L repetitively off several to several hundred fuses. But it will all come back to you. You can go 8 6L in a row, but sooner or later, you will run dry and it'll take all the fuses you saved on the 8 before to square up with RNG. That's how RNG works. The odds of getting heads or tails is 50/50. You could flip a coin 20 times and get all tails. But if you flipped it 20 million times, it would even out to a pretty close 50/50. Do it 20 trillion times and it'll probably be almost a perfect 50/50.

It's your brain. Some people remember the bad, some the good. That distorts their memory and their perception of "luck."

No

It's super simple mathematics:

1. Check price for your robe / 2h weapon ( quality of rolls included ) unlinked ones on poe.trade

2. Check price for your robe / 2h weapon ( quality of rolls included ) 6L ones on poe.trade

3. For legacy standard league 1500 fuse = 8 ex, if difference in prices 1. / 2. are bigger then use Vorici crafting, if lower go to poe.tarde and buy 6L item.

Do maths, don't gamble, don't loose 3400 fuses for nothing.

It's so easy to check currency ratios on:

http://poe.ninja/

and exchange

http://currency.poe.trade/

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鬼殺し a écrit :

... Chris has said outright the average number of fusing orbs required to 6l is higher than 1500.

I seem to remember it as the opposite. It's (on average) more expensive to Vorici 6L; you're paying a premium for the certainty.

Here's the reference, from the Deterministic Crafting section of the dev manifesto More Forsaken Masters Information

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Chris a écrit :

To offer a lower-variance way for players to socket and link their items. It's still possible (and a little cheaper) to roll them randomly, but for players who don't want to use 2000 fusings and fail to six-link an item, you can pay 1500 to do it at a crafting bench. Note that the odds of rolling this naturally have always been slightly lower than 1 in 1500 anyway, so it's entirely a choice of whether you want to gamble or have a deterministic result.

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鬼殺し a écrit :

Chris has said outright the average number of fusing orbs required to 6l is higher than 1500.

Really? For quite some time he was posting that it was in the 1200 area.

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Shagsbeard a écrit :

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鬼殺し a écrit :

Chris has said outright the average number of fusing orbs required to 6l is higher than 1500.

Really? For quite some time he was posting that it was in the 1200 area.

I also remember something about 1200. When I went looking for references, I couldn't find any. The closest I found was this reddit thread, wherein Chris comments:

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Chris a écrit :

The actual odds are very close to 1 in 1500.

Careful about dates. There's a known effect that quality enters into it, and quality was removed once upon a time each craft. Now it's pretty much assumed you're linking with 20% quality.

For some odd reason I have managed to get two 6-link Carcass Jack, both while I was just hoping for 5 link spending around 150 fusings in total, never got this lucky before in my 1200 hours in the game, I think my luck has ran out for the rest of league.