How RNG does not work in PoE.
" Though worth noting that people say the average is 1:1000. That puts the actual odds of success at 1:2000. With a 1,999 in 2000 chance of failure, that means (1999/2000)^5000 or 8.2% won't see a link in 5k attempts. And 6.7 out of a thousand won't see one in 10k. Heck, even if you're talking a situation where half the people won't see a single success in 1000 attempts, that's odds of ~1:1450. And with those odds, 3.18% won't see a 6L in 5,000 attempts. Dernière édition par Axterix13#5693, le 27 déc. 2014 à 14:53:10
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ingame RNG is linearly dependent to your whiny forum posts about RNG. The more you brag about it, the less RNG favour you receive.
My RNG stats (about 650 hours in the game): dropped around 10 exalts dropped 4 divines no eternal, no mirror first (and only so far) 6L attempt succeeded in ~100 fusings dropping high qualitiy (>11) gems like every day. have to farm Dusk, Dawn and Noon fragments, so I can complete very frequently dropping Midnights to sets unfortunately no really significant uniques so far And I have to add: I pick up every single currency item and every rare I can. Scraps and whetstones are quite handy when doing chaos recipe, you get 3 instead of 2 for a set. Dernière édition par Kussler88#5578, le 30 déc. 2014 à 07:08:58
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I don't believe in RNGesus, but I do believe in the central limit theorem and the strong law of large numbers.
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The other thing people fail to account for is that your expected number of fusings to 6L increases with your failures.
After failing to 6L 500 times for instance you should be expecting to 6L on average after 1500 total fusings on average, not 1000. the probability of the next roll being a 6L and consequently the expected number of fusings on average left to spend is independent of past results. You can of course go back after the fact and calculate the probability of your total number of failures, but though there is only a .6% chance of failing a 1/1000 roll on 5000 fusings, after you've already failed 4500 times, you will still a ~60% chance of not completing the 6L in under 5000 fusings. Talisman softcore IGN:disappointment
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RNG is RNG.
GGG banning all political discussion shortly after getting acquired by China is a weird coincidence.
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"they only fail to account for that if they fall into gamblers fallacy. which they shouldnt in the first place |
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