How RNG does not work in PoE.

Hello everyone, this is not a QQ-Thread but just a thought of how I see the RNG part in PoE.

Idk how many of you actually tried to ever 6l something, probably everyone, some might have not been successful, others might have done it a couple times already.

So, considering a 6l takes on average 1000 fusings (just a flat number), then you are most likely to hit a 6l after.. around 1000 fusings, IF your 'luck' is even.

Then again, I see ALOT of people 6l something in under 100 fuses which SHOULD be around 10% chance to achieve if we take the normal 1:1000 ratio.

THEN again, how many people did you see that 6l something in above 10000 fuses? I'm not sure if I've seen any. Sure, its a rather high amount of people out there that probably never had one, but compare those guys to the AMOUNTS of people who 6l something in a couple fusings.

Me for my part have 6l 9 items in under 100 fuses, 4 of which were in under 10, 1 in - 1 - fusing.

Lets take that 1 fusing, its a 0.1% chance to 6l something in a single fuse. (theoretically)

The opposite would be 1.000.000 fusings for 1 6l. I HIGHLY doubt one could not 6l a single item within 1m fuses. I'll literally call that impossible. A 0.1% chance isnt even so low, considering there's more than 1000 people who ever tried 6-linking right? (0.1% -> 1/1000 chance).

This might be the same with every 'RNG' drop in PoE, I'm going so far to say that accounts have a build-in RNG counter (this sounds retardedly stupid lol) for each element of the game, except maybe chroms because its impossible for the game to tell which colors you want.


It might not be a huge factor but it's probably influencing harder as you go into a heavy dry streak and no, i dont say this is the so called 'RNG cloud' since that is a totally different topic.


Might aswell just be stupid words put together in a try to make something logical, but hey, atleast i tried something ^_^

Have a good day everyone, i love you all ~ ♥

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaussian_function

graph shows distribution of "luck" among players. on the right there are couple of people extremely lucky, on the left couple of people extremely unlucky and in the middle majority of players being about average lucky

btw, this function applies to many things irl, intelligence of population for instance

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Ludvator a écrit :

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gaussian_function

graph shows distribution of "luck" among players. on the right there are couple of people extremely lucky, on the left couple of people extremely unlucky and in the middle majority of players being about average lucky

btw, this function applies to many things irl, intelligence of population for instance

i do not understand that site tbh, sorry, im a retard :')

you dont have to be retard to not understand that page:) Id say its pretty complicated

I was talking about this graph

nice Gaussian function there, Ludvator.
but did anyone say the Path Of Exile PRNG is normally-distributed?

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Therealshotzz a écrit :

Lets take that 1 fusing, its a 0.1% chance to 6l something in a single fuse. (theoretically)

The opposite would be 1.000.000 fusings for 1 6l.

Eeehm. No. Sorry. Not trying to put you down, but a lot of what you say about statistics in your post is flat out wrong, this statement especially. I honestly don't want to sound condescending, but you might want to read up on gaussian distributions and probability if you want to understand RNG better.

I've certainly heard of a few people going WELL over 1000 or even 5000 fusings trying to 6L something. One reason you won't hear about these extreme bad streaks as often as you might expect though, is simply that most people don't keep trying until they get a 6L no matter what. They can't afford to. Most probably can't even afford to come close to the 1500 or so they would expect to need. And the ones who can afford 1500 now will probably just take the sure thing and use master crafting if they really NEED a 6L. The rest might burn a few hundred fuses trying to 5L the item and a few of them will get lucky enough to end up with a 6L instead. Those are the ones you hear about.

not sure John,

but if something is random (based on set probability system), it is random.. it cant be more random or less random:)

In long run, luck "vanishes". if you try to 6L 10 items, youll get lot of various results with average being far off the actuall 6L odds you are getting. if you 6L billion items, your avarage will be very very close to actuall 6L odds

When playing poker, I came to conclusion that I have to play (and track) several hundreds thousands of hands to find out, whether I win (or lose) because I am good (bad) player or because of luck (bad luck). In long run, variance (bad/good luck) goes away and the truth reveals itself:)

but I think PoE has so huge pool of possible outcomes, that you probably have no chance to play that long to "beat RNG and turn it into pure probability" :)))

edit:


edit2: @Hodari

probability of not getting 6L in 5000 fusings is ~0,67% (assuming 1:1000 odds)

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Ludvator a écrit :

edit2: @Hodari

probability of not getting 6L in 5000 fusings is ~0,67% (assuming 1:1000 odds)

Yes, it's very unlikely, but there are so many people playing, it's certain to happen to SOMEONE.

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Hodari a écrit :

I've certainly heard of a few people going WELL over 1000 or even 5000 fusings trying to 6L something. One reason you won't hear about these extreme bad streaks as often as you might expect though, is simply that most people don't keep trying until they get a 6L no matter what. They can't afford to.

thats it. you get the "illusion" that 6l's are done within lets say 2k fusings with a peak at 1,5k.


ate several thousand fusings pre masters before i gave up, so might be one of the 6l in 1mil fus items. wont put anymore fusings into it since its a fun project



3,5k+ fus premasters 6l with vorici , would not have put anymore fusings into it, if it wasnt for vorici


those are the items, you basicly never hear about




in less then 2 stacks of fusings.. hurray... this got into my status (hurray got 6l in >add random low 2 digit number< fusings! :-) )update when i got it, thats what you hear about


considering all items i tried to 6l (not just those 3) i spend 10k+ fusings and got 1 6link.


like hodari said: usually you get your 6l within the average or you stop tryign and discard the item, which creates said illusion of having a higher chance to 6l in less or only slightly above the "average" amount of fusings consumed.