Question regarding 5L on a 6S chance rate

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EwokVillage a écrit :

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Unhold a écrit :

The 6 possibilities are only correct when you look at it from a single slot perspective, "states a slot can be in". It doesn't figure in the combination of shorter links like three 2 links etc.

Ooooh A new kink is thrown into the mix. I didnt think of that one.

This is why I love math, its always exciting

i'm very rusty on stats and combinatronics, but I too came to the conclusion that it would be the same by using links as a binary. if you have 5 slots, there are 4 spaces that can be either linked or unlinked - a 1 or a 0. therefore 1111 would yield a 5 link, or 1/16 permutations. for a 6S item you can get a 5L with 11110 or 01111, or 2/32 = 1/16

of course we all know that the chance to roll a 5L is way way way lower than that

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sage2050 a écrit :

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EwokVillage a écrit :

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Unhold a écrit :

The 6 possibilities are only correct when you look at it from a single slot perspective, "states a slot can be in". It doesn't figure in the combination of shorter links like three 2 links etc.

Ooooh A new kink is thrown into the mix. I didnt think of that one.

This is why I love math, its always exciting

i'm very rusty on stats and combinatronics, but I too came to the conclusion that it would be the same by using links as a binary. if you have 5 slots, there are 4 spaces that can be either linked or unlinked - a 1 or a 0. therefore 1111 would yield a 5 link, or 1/16 permutations. for a 6S item you can get a 5L with 11110 or 01111, or 2/32 = 1/16

I can almost guarantee this is wrong though due to the ability that the links can repeat.

If there was no repetition then you are absolutely right.

well no, the binary approach does take that into account. it's wrong because you have to pull 4 ones in a row, not pull a 1111 out of a hat.
or something like that. like i said, very rusty on combinatronics.

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TheSidiouS a écrit :

actually it increases the chances for smaller links as well.
like
1-2 3 4 5 6
1 2-3 4 5 6 and so on... so more possibilities in general

2 possibilities for 5 link
1 possibilitie for 6 link.

i think (without doing the math) its easier to get a 5 link on 5s socket item... but u miss the chance for a 6l ...

You don't know that. I'm under the understanding that link chances are explicitly controlled, not individually rolled like you imply they are.

The chances of getting a 5-link may be completely unrelated to any number of permutations or combinations.

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sage2050 a écrit :

well no, the binary approach does take that into account. it's wrong because you have to pull 4 ones in a row, not pull a 1111 out of a hat.
or something like that. like i said, very rusty on combinatronics.

Yea. I dont have a graphing calc so it would take me way to long to figure out the answer. Not including like someone mentioned the possibility for an item to roll two different types of links on the same item

over 9000!!!!! combinations.

There is 32 combinations as its been said before: {00000,00001,...,11110,11111}.

However, the chances of getting 5L and 6L from experience are not 2/32 and 1/32 respectively. There is probably a way lower chance to get the best links.

Despite of all that, I would say it is probably easier to 5L a 6S than a 5S.

Yes, 32 combinations is correct and it does take every possible situation in count. What I'm wondering is does the Orb of Fusing always change the links? So you can never end up with the same links you had before you fused? If this is the case, then the chances of getting at least 5 linked sockets in a 6 socket item with an Orb of Fusing is 3/31. Which is better than the odds of getting 5 linked sockets in a 5 socket item (1/15).

Of course, all this assumes that every link combination has the exact same chance of happening. We'd need someone to use thousands of Orbs of Fusing to verify the chances. Did anyone do statistics on fusing in Closed Beta?

of course. you probably don't want to see the results though.
http://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/21503